Important drivers of nominal payday spreads

Spread volatility is one of the most important underlying drivers of nominal spreads. Investing in more volatile sectors requires a higher compensation (higher option adjusted spread) because it is more difficult to target projected returns. There is a close relationship between aggregate spread levels and aggregate spread volatility. Periods of tight spreads are accompanied by [...]

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Technical factors have to be considered in the decision process regarding the weighting of various sectors in a corporate bond portfolio. First of all, projections about the expected net new issuance volume have to be made. All redemptions in an industry are known and the projected financing needs of all companies within an industry add to the total expected issuance from a specific sector. In the past, the largest issuance volume has been concentrated in the automobile, telecommunications and utility sectors.

It has to be evaluated whether the new issuance volume can be absorbed by the market or whether it will put pressure on spreads. The general risk appetite/aversion of market participants and the prevailing sentiment towards the various sectors will give a hint about the demand for certain sectors. Another important factor is liquidity because it will vary substantially between sectors. Furthermore if investors want to express a certain view on different maturity buckets within a portfolio the choice might be limited to a few frequent borrowers who have bonds in all maturity buckets outstanding. Those companies are usually concentrated in the automobile, telecommunications and utility sectors.