Important drivers of nominal payday spreads

Spread volatility is one of the most important underlying drivers of nominal spreads. Investing in more volatile sectors requires a higher compensation (higher option adjusted spread) because it is more difficult to target projected returns. There is a close relationship between aggregate spread levels and aggregate spread volatility. Periods of tight spreads are accompanied by [...]

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The rating outlook of both rating agencies (S&P and Moody’s) can be another criterion to choose between industries. If companies with a positive rating outlook outweigh the companies with a stable or negative rating outlook within an industry, it can be a good indicator for favorable industry dynamics, even if we have to recognize that ratings are sometimes lagging indicators for credit quality. A diversified portfolio should overweight the industries with a positive rating outlook and underweight industries with a negative rating outlook if the whole credit market experiences a “Flight-to-Quality.” During a market phase with a higher risk appetite, fundamental factors like the rating trend in a specific industry might not be the primary decision criterion for a sector positioning and other factors like valuation
will play a bigger role.